Spain HICP y/y - ForexCracked
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Euro area

Spain HICP y/y EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 30 08:00 UTC · consensus 4.7% · previous 5%  

What this release is

Spain’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, or HICP, year over year measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by households in Spain. This key inflation indicator is published monthly by Spain’s national statistics office, INE.es. It falls under the prices sector of economic data.

Forex traders monitor this release closely as it provides insight into inflationary pressures within the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy. Persistent inflation trends in Spain can influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions. Changes in the ECB’s stance on interest rates or quantitative easing can impact the valuation of the euro against other currencies.

The market typically focuses on the initial year over year percentage change reported. While this release is a national indicator, its contribution to broader Eurozone inflation metrics means it is generally considered to have a medium impact on currency markets after past releases.

How hard it hits, measured

244 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
8pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
14pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
77pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.0p4.7p8.0p14p
EURAUD4.4p6.8p11p23p
EURCAD3.5p5.3p8.6p16p
EURCHF2.1p3.3p6.0p11p
EURGBP2.2p3.8p5.0p9.2p
EURJPY3.9p5.5p10p20p
EURNZD4.7p6.7p13p23p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 34 of 63 cases · median +1.4p n=63 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 23 of 42 cases · median -1.6p n=42 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 42 of 76 cases · median +1.7p n=76 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 14, 20265%5%5%—-9.1p—
Sep 29, 20265%4.9%4.6%—-10p—
Sep 15, 20264.6%4.5%4.5%—+7.0p—
Aug 28, 20264.5%———-1.1p—
Jul 30, 20263.8%3.5%3.6%—-9.1p—
Jul 15, 20263.6%3.6%3.6%—-6.4p—
Jun 29, 20263.6%3.6%3.6%—-9.8p—
Jun 12, 20263.6%—3.6%—-6.5p—
May 29, 20263.6%3.5%3.5%—-12p—
May 14, 20263.5%3.5%3.5%—-11p—
Apr 29, 20263.5%3%3.4%—+5.7p—
Apr 14, 20263.4%3.3%3.3%—+2.1p—
Mar 27, 20263.3%2.1%2.5%—+2.0p—
Mar 13, 20262.5%2.5%2.5%—-13p—
Feb 27, 20262.5%2.1%2.4%—-5.3p—
Feb 13, 20262.4%2.5%2.5%—+3.9p—
Jan 30, 20262.5%2.8%3%—-4.9p—
Jan 15, 20263%3%3%—+2.1p—
Dec 30, 20253%3.5%3.2%—-3.2p—
Dec 12, 20253.2%3.1%3.1%—-9.7p—
Nov 28, 20253.1%3.1%3.2%—-9.4p—
Nov 14, 20253.2%3.2%3.2%—-3.4p—
Oct 30, 20253.2%2.8%3%—-1.4p—
Oct 15, 20253%3%3%—+1.7p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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