France HICP m/m - ForexCracked
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Euro area

France HICP m/m EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Sep 15 06:45 UTC · consensus 0.8% · previous 0.8%  

What this release is

The France Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, month over month, measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services in France. This key inflation indicator is published monthly by the national statistics office, INSEE, at insee.fr.

Forex traders monitor this release closely as a gauge of inflationary pressures within the Eurozone’s second largest economy. Sustained changes in French HICP can influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Shifts in interest rate expectations can affect the valuation of the euro.

Upon release, market attention typically centers on the headline month over month figure. While past data revisions are also observed, the initial reading often generates a medium level of market attention. This monthly data point contributes to the broader economic picture for the Eurozone.

How hard it hits, measured

242 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
8pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
15pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
41pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD1.7p3.8p8.1p15p
EURAUD3.1p5.2p14p22p
EURCAD2.5p4.2p8.9p17p
EURCHF1.5p2.6p6.0p10p
EURGBP1.7p2.4p5.8p11p
EURJPY2.8p4.9p12p22p
EURNZD3.5p6.4p14p26p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 34 of 68 cases · median +0.3p n=68 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 28 of 53 cases · median +0.3p n=53 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 38 of 63 cases · median +1.4p n=63 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 28, 20260.8%0.2%0.6%—-2.6p—
Aug 14, 20260.6%0.6%0.6%—+5.7p—
Jul 31, 20260.6%-0.3%-0.3%—+5.1p—
Jul 10, 2026-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%—-0.3p—
Jun 30, 2026-0.3%0.2%0.1%—+7.1p—
Jun 12, 20260.1%0.1%0.1%—-8.1p—
May 29, 20260.1%0.2%1.2%—-6.0p—
May 13, 20261.2%1.2%1.2%—-12p—
Apr 30, 20261.2%0.9%1.1%—+11p—
Apr 15, 20261.1%—1.1%—+2.7p—
Mar 31, 20261.1%0.5%0.7%—+1.9p—
Mar 13, 20260.7%—0.4%—-23p—
Feb 27, 20260.4%-0.6%-0.4%—+1.0p—
Feb 18, 2026-0.4%—-0.3%—-5.8p—
Feb 3, 2026-0.3%-0.3%0.1%—-8.1p—
Jan 15, 20260.1%0.1%0.1%—+2.6p—
Jan 6, 20260.1%0.5%-0.2%—-8.8p—
Dec 12, 2025-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%—-2.7p—
Nov 28, 2025-0.2%0%0.1%—-13p—
Nov 14, 20250.1%0.1%0.1%—-7.0p—
Oct 31, 20250.1%-0.8%-1.1%—+9.2p—
Oct 15, 2025-1.1%-1.1%-1.1%—+9.3p—
Sep 30, 2025-1.1%0.2%0.5%—-2.3p—
Sep 12, 20250.5%0.5%0.5%—+7.1p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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