Euro area

GDP q/q EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Nov 13 10:00 UTC · consensus 0.4% · previous 0.4%  

What this release is

Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the total value of all goods and services produced within an economy over a specific period. The quarter over quarter reading for the Eurozone tracks this economic output compared to the previous three month period. This data is officially published by the statistical office of the European Union, found at ec.europa.eu.

Forex traders closely monitor Eurozone GDP as a key indicator of economic growth and health. Stronger than expected growth can suggest an economy operating at or above its potential, which may influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions. Conversely, weaker growth might signal economic contraction or stagnation, potentially leading to different policy considerations from the central bank. These policy expectations can impact the euro’s valuation.

The market typically focuses on the headline quarter over quarter growth rate upon release. While the initial reading often drives immediate market reaction, subsequent revisions in later estimates can also draw attention and sometimes prompt further adjustments in market sentiment. The release cadence is quarterly, providing regular updates on the Eurozone’s economic performance. This series typically carries a medium impact rating for the euro.

How hard it hits, measured

117 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
6pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
11pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
32pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.4p3.2p5.6p11p
EURAUD3.4p5.2p8.5p17p
EURCAD3.4p3.3p7.2p13p
EURCHF2.2p2.6p5.0p9.1p
EURGBP1.8p2.5p5.0p9.2p
EURJPY4.1p5.4p6.6p13p
EURNZD3.6p5.7p8.0p17p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 17 of 31 cases · median -0.3p n=31 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 15 of 26 cases · median -1.2p n=26 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 29 of 49 cases · median -1.6p n=49 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 30, 20260.4%0.3%0.6%—+3.3p—
Sep 7, 20260.6%0.4%0.4%0%——
Aug 14, 20260.4%0.4%0.4%0%-1.1p—
Jul 30, 20260.4%0.2%-0.2%0%+16p—
Jun 5, 2026-0.2%—0.1%———
May 13, 20260.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%+3.1p—
Apr 30, 20260.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%+15p—
Mar 6, 20260.2%—0.3%———
Feb 13, 20260.3%0.3%0.3%—-3.2p—
Jan 30, 20260.3%0.1%0.3%0.3%+13p—
Dec 5, 20250.3%—0.2%———
Nov 14, 20250.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%-8.2p—
Oct 30, 20250.2%0.2%0.1%—-9.5p—
Sep 5, 20250.1%—0.1%———
Aug 14, 20250.1%0.1%0.1%0.6%+14p—
Jul 30, 20250.1%0.3%0.6%0.6%-4.8p—
Jun 6, 20250.6%—0.3%0.3%——
May 15, 20250.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%-7.4p—
Apr 30, 20250.4%0%0.2%0.2%-8.6p—
Mar 7, 20250.2%—0.1%———
Feb 14, 20250.1%0%0%0.4%-14p—
Jan 30, 20250%0.4%0.4%0.4%-6.8p—
Dec 6, 20240.4%—0.4%0.4%+5.3p—
Nov 14, 20240.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%-9.0p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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