Euro Area CPI Flash Estimate y/y - ForexCracked
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Euro area · Inflation

Euro Area CPI Flash Estimate y/y EUR

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 2 09:00 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate year-over-year measures the preliminary annual change in the cost of a basket of goods and services purchased by households across the Euro Area. This early indicator of inflation is published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Forex traders closely monitor this inflation data because it directly influences the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decisions. The ECB’s primary mandate includes maintaining price stability. Stronger inflation readings, after past releases, have often led to expectations of tighter monetary policy, which can support the Euro. Conversely, weaker inflation has sometimes suggested the potential for looser policy. This release is generally considered to have a High impact on the market.

Market participants typically focus on the headline year-over-year figure as a primary signal. As a “Flash Estimate,” this data is preliminary and subject to revision when the final CPI report is issued later. The early release of this estimate provides an initial gauge of price pressures, informing market sentiment ahead of the confirmed figures.

How hard it hits, measured

21 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
6pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
13pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
18pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.7p2.8p5.7p13p
EURAUD3.1p4.4p7.5p16p
EURCAD3.4p2.8p5.2p12p
EURCHF1.2p3.0p5.3p11p
EURGBP1.8p1.8p4.1p6.0p
EURJPY4.5p3.8p8.4p15p
EURNZD3.1p3.9p10p22p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Jul 1, 2026-8.4p
Jun 2, 2026-0.4p
Apr 30, 2026+15p
Mar 31, 2026+1.3p
Mar 3, 2026-13p
Feb 4, 2026-0.1p
Jan 7, 2026+4.2p
Dec 2, 2025-3.3p
Oct 31, 2025-4.8p
Oct 1, 2025-17p
Sep 2, 2025-7.1p
Aug 1, 2025-5.7p
Jul 1, 2025+9.3p
Jun 3, 2025+0.4p
May 2, 2025+18p
Apr 1, 2025-0.4p
Mar 3, 2025+15p
Feb 3, 2025+13p
Jan 7, 2025+0.4p

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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