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United States

CB Leading Economic Index m/m USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 19 15:00 UTC · consensus 0% · previous 0%  

What this release is

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, or LEI, measures the month over month change in a composite index designed to forecast the future direction of the United States economy. This business sector indicator, published by conference-board.org, provides an early look at potential shifts in economic activity.

Forex traders monitor the Leading Economic Index for insights into the overall health and trajectory of the US economy. A robust or weakening outlook, as suggested by the LEI, can influence expectations for future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, which in turn impacts the US dollar. After past releases, significant changes have sometimes correlated with shifts in market sentiment regarding economic growth prospects.

The market typically focuses on the headline month over month percentage change in the Leading Economic Index. Revisions to prior months’ data can also draw attention, as they refine the historical picture of economic trends. Released monthly, this report provides a timely update on forward-looking economic conditions, often prompting market participants to adjust their short-term outlooks.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
8pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
18pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
73pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.3p6.3p8.2p18p
AUDUSD2.6p4.5p8.2p13p
GBPUSD3.8p6.9p13p22p
NZDUSD2.5p4.0p6.1p11p
USDCAD3.3p6.0p11p18p
USDCHF2.9p4.8p8.2p13p
USDJPY4.2p5.7p11p20p
XAUUSD12p20p31p58p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 23 of 37 cases · median -3.9p n=37 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 26 of 52 cases · median -0.3p n=52 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 12 of 21 cases · median -2.6p n=21 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 22, 20260%0%-0.1%—+2.7p—
Sep 18, 2026-0.1%-0.1%0.2%—+3.4p—
Aug 20, 20260.2%-0.1%-0.2%—+8.2p—
Jul 20, 2026-0.2%-0.2%0.1%—-10p—
Jun 18, 20260.1%-0.3%0.1%—+14p—
May 22, 2026-0.1%-0.5%-0.6%—-5.8p—
Apr 30, 2026-0.6%-0.4%0.3%—+38p—
Mar 19, 2026-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%—-1.2p—
Feb 19, 2026-0.2%-0.5%-0.3%—+11p—
Jan 23, 2026-0.3%-0.5%-0.3%-0.2%+12p—
Dec 9, 2025-0.3%—-0.5%-0.3%-8.9p—
Oct 20, 2025—-0.3%-0.5%—+4.6p—
Sep 18, 2025-0.5%-0.2%-0.1%—+8.5p—
Aug 21, 2025-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%—-4.9p—
Jul 21, 2025-0.3%-0.3%-0.1%—+32p—
Jun 20, 2025-0.1%-0.8%-1%—-4.7p—
May 19, 2025-1%-0.3%-0.7%—+2.1p—
Apr 21, 2025-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%—-21p—
Mar 20, 2025-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%—+4.1p—
Feb 20, 2025-0.3%-0.3%-0.1%—+28p—
Jan 22, 2025-0.1%0%0.3%—-4.5p—
Dec 19, 20240.3%-0.4%-0.4%—-16p—
Nov 21, 2024-0.4%-0.4%-0.5%—-25p—
Oct 21, 2024-0.5%-0.3%-0.2%—-13p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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