Core PPI m/m - ForexCracked
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United States

Core PPI m/m USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 10 12:30 UTC · consensus 0.3% · previous 0.2%  

What this release is

Core Producer Price Index month over month, or Core PPI m/m, measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding volatile food and energy components. This data, which focuses on the prices producers receive, is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, bls.gov, as part of the broader prices sector.

Forex traders monitor Core PPI as a key indicator of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Sustained increases in producer prices can eventually translate into higher consumer prices, influencing the central bank’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Changes in interest rate expectations can impact the valuation of the US Dollar.

The market typically focuses on the headline Core PPI m/m figure upon its monthly release. Significant deviations from expectations can lead to notable market reactions. Traders also consider any revisions to previous months’ data, as these can provide additional context on underlying price trends. The typical impact rating for this series is High.

How hard it hits, measured

121 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
21pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.3p6.9p11p21p
AUDUSD4.2p5.5p7.1p13p
GBPUSD5.6p8.5p16p23p
NZDUSD4.3p6.0p7.9p12p
USDCAD5.4p6.6p9.4p18p
USDCHF4.5p5.6p8.4p16p
USDJPY7.2p9.4p9.4p19p
XAUUSD15p21p33p54p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 22 of 44 cases · median -0.2p n=44 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 26 of 47 cases · median +1.0p n=47 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 11 of 19 cases · median +3.5p n=19 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 13, 20260.2%0.2%0.2%0.4%+3.7p—
Jul 15, 20260.2%0.2%0.4%0.1%+11p—
Jun 11, 20260.4%0.3%1%0.7%+3.7p—
May 13, 20261%0.5%0.1%0.2%0.0p—
Apr 14, 20260.1%0.6%0.5%0.3%-3.8p—
Mar 18, 20260.5%1.1%0.8%—-18p—
Feb 27, 20260.8%1%0.7%0.6%-0.4p—
Jan 30, 20260.7%-0.6%0%—-11p—
Jan 14, 20260%-0.2%0.1%0.3%+7.4p—
Nov 25, 20250.1%—-0.1%-0.1%+21p—
Sep 10, 2025-0.1%0.7%0.9%0.9%+23p—
Aug 14, 20250.9%-0.1%0%—-28p—
Jul 16, 20250%0.1%0.1%0.4%-13p—
Jun 12, 20250.1%-0.1%-0.4%-0.2%-6.0p—
May 15, 2025-0.4%0.1%-0.1%0.4%+11p—
Apr 11, 2025-0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%+53p—
Mar 13, 2025-0.1%0.2%0.3%0.5%-27p—
Feb 13, 20250.3%0.2%0%0.4%-0.4p—
Jan 14, 20250%0.1%0.2%—+23p—
Dec 12, 20240.2%0.4%0.3%—+0.1p—
Nov 14, 20240.3%0.1%0.2%—+13p—
Oct 11, 20240.2%0.4%0.3%—-7.6p—
Sep 12, 20240.3%0.3%0%-0.2%+19p—
Aug 13, 20240%0.2%0.4%0.3%+26p—

Showing the latest 24 of 121 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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