Durable Goods Orders m/m - ForexCracked
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United States

Durable Goods Orders m/m USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 25 12:30 UTC · consensus -3.4% · previous 1.1%  

What this release is

Durable Goods Orders m/m measures the value of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for durable goods, which are items designed to last three years or more. This key business sector indicator is published monthly by census.gov, providing insight into the health of the manufacturing industry.

Forex traders monitor this release as a gauge of business investment and consumer demand for big-ticket items. Stronger orders typically signal economic expansion and future manufacturing activity, which can influence expectations for central bank monetary policy and the US Dollar. Conversely, weaker orders may suggest economic slowdown.

The market typically focuses on the headline month over month percentage change in durable goods orders. Analysts often give particular attention to the core reading, which excludes the volatile transportation sector. Revisions to previous months’ data can also influence market sentiment after past releases.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
17pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.9p5.0p11p17p
AUDUSD2.5p3.6p6.4p14p
GBPUSD4.6p6.5p13p23p
NZDUSD2.5p3.5p7.7p12p
USDCAD3.4p4.6p11p19p
USDCHF2.4p4.5p8.7p16p
USDJPY4.1p5.9p11p20p
XAUUSD12p14p23p55p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 33 of 62 cases · median +0.7p n=62 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 28 of 48 cases · median -3.9p n=48 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 26, 20261.1%0.8%0.3%0.5%-15p—
Jul 27, 20260.3%1.7%-4.5%-4%-4.0p—
Jun 25, 2026-4.5%0.6%7.9%8.5%+25p—
May 28, 20267.9%-3.2%0.8%1.3%+8.5p—
Apr 29, 20260.8%4.7%-1.4%-1.2%-14p—
Apr 7, 2026-1.4%-2.2%0%-0.5%-1.2p—
Mar 13, 20260%-0.5%-1.4%-0.9%+8.2p—
Feb 18, 2026-1.4%-3.2%5.3%5.4%-20p—
Jan 26, 20265.3%6.8%-2.2%-2.1%+20p—
Dec 23, 2025-2.2%1.2%0.5%0.7%-17p—
Nov 26, 20250.5%-2.9%2.9%3%+1.3p—
Sep 25, 20252.9%-0.5%-2.8%-2.7%-34p—
Aug 26, 2025-2.8%4%-9.3%-9.4%-8.0p—
Jul 25, 2025-9.3%1.6%16.4%16.5%+0.7p—
Jun 26, 202516.4%-2.9%-6.3%-6.6%+12p—
May 27, 2025-6.3%-2%9.2%7.6%+6.1p—
Apr 24, 20259.2%-2.4%0.9%—+8.9p—
Mar 26, 20250.9%0.5%3.1%3.3%-21p—
Feb 27, 20253.1%5.1%-2.2%-1.8%-43p—
Jan 28, 2025-2.2%-5%-1.1%-2%+7.1p—
Dec 23, 2024-1.1%0.2%0.2%0.8%+5.1p—
Nov 27, 20240.2%-0.4%-0.8%-0.4%+24p—
Oct 25, 2024-0.8%-6.2%0%-0.8%+5.3p—
Sep 26, 20240%6.5%9.9%—-5.0p—

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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