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United States

Existing Home Sales m/m USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 12 15:00 UTC · consensus 0% · previous 1.5%  

What this release is

Existing Home Sales m/m measures the change in sales of previously owned residential properties in the United States each month. This report is published by the National Association of Realtors, nar.realtor, and provides a key indicator for the housing sector. It is released monthly.

Forex traders monitor Existing Home Sales as a gauge of overall economic health. A robust housing market often reflects strong consumer confidence and spending, which can contribute to inflationary pressures. After past releases showing significant changes, market participants have adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy, impacting the US Dollar’s valuation.

The market typically focuses on the headline month-over-month percentage change in existing home sales. While the initial release captures attention, any revisions to prior months’ data can also influence market sentiment. This monthly release is generally considered a medium impact indicator for the US Dollar, often contributing to broader economic narratives rather than causing immediate, sharp movements on its own.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
16pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
59pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.0p4.6p6.6p16p
AUDUSD2.7p4.2p8.4p13p
GBPUSD3.7p5.9p12p19p
NZDUSD2.5p4.2p6.1p12p
USDCAD3.8p5.7p9.9p20p
USDCHF2.3p4.2p7.6p14p
USDJPY3.5p4.3p9.7p20p
XAUUSD11p16p27p53p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 27 of 48 cases · median -2.3p n=48 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 31 of 61 cases · median +0.9p n=61 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=2 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 13, 20261.5%-2.4%-2%-3.2%+6.9p—
Sep 10, 2026-2%0.1%-1.7%—+17p—
Aug 11, 2026-1.7%-0.6%-2.4%-1.4%-2.7p—
Jul 9, 2026-2.4%0.4%3.2%3.7%-5.7p—
Jun 9, 20263.2%1%0.2%0.7%-4.1p—
May 11, 20260.2%-5%-3.6%-2.9%-5.6p—
Apr 13, 2026-3.6%4.3%1.7%2.7%+4.9p—
Mar 10, 20261.7%-5.6%-8.4%-5.9%+16p—
Feb 12, 2026-8.4%0.8%0.5%4.4%+2.5p—
Dec 19, 20250.5%2%1.2%1.5%-17p—
Nov 20, 20251.2%4.3%1.5%1.3%-7.5p—
Oct 23, 20251.5%—-0.2%-0.2%+6.4p—
Sep 23, 2025-0.2%-2%2%2%-4.3p—
Aug 21, 20252%1.3%-2.7%—-4.9p—
Jul 23, 2025-2.7%-1.1%0.8%1%+7.5p—
Jun 23, 20250.8%-0.1%-0.5%—+41p—
May 22, 2025-0.5%-8.5%-5.9%—-5.8p—
Apr 24, 2025-5.9%0.3%4.2%4.4%-3.1p—
Mar 20, 20254.2%0.4%-4.9%-4.7%+4.1p—
Feb 21, 2025-4.9%-3.6%2.2%2.9%——
Jan 24, 20252.2%-7.8%4.8%—+25p—
Dec 19, 20244.8%-0.1%3.4%—-16p—
Nov 21, 20243.4%-2.7%-1%-1.3%-25p—
Oct 23, 2024-1%-1%-2.5%-2%-0.6p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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