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United States

Fed Industrial Production m/m USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Nov 17 14:15 UTC · consensus 0.5% · previous 0.7%  

What this release is

Industrial Production measures the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities sectors. This monthly report provides a broad gauge of activity within the business sector of the economy. The data is officially sourced and published by the Federal Reserve, an agency responsible for the nation’s monetary policy.

Forex traders monitor Industrial Production for insights into the overall health and growth trajectory of the economy. Sustained expansion in industrial output can signal robust economic activity, potentially influencing the central bank’s stance on monetary policy. Changes in policy expectations, particularly regarding interest rates, can in turn affect the valuation of the US Dollar.

Upon its monthly release, the market typically focuses on the headline percentage change in Industrial Production. Significant deviations from expectations can prompt immediate reactions. Traders also consider any revisions to previous months’ data, as these adjustments can refine the understanding of underlying economic momentum. The report offers a timely look at a critical component of economic performance.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
9pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
18pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
50pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.2p3.9p8.6p18p
AUDUSD2.2p2.8p7.1p13p
GBPUSD3.5p5.1p12p20p
NZDUSD2.1p3.7p6.1p11p
USDCAD2.8p4.0p9.2p21p
USDCHF2.6p3.2p7.1p14p
USDJPY3.4p4.9p8.9p19p
XAUUSD11p13p34p65p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 33 of 64 cases · median -0.8p n=64 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 21 of 40 cases · median +2.1p n=40 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=6 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 16, 20260.7%-0.1%0%0.1%+12p—
Sep 18, 20260%0%0.2%—-1.5p—
Aug 18, 20260.2%0.1%0.1%0.3%+5.1p—
Jul 17, 20260.1%0.2%0.1%—+6.3p—
Jun 15, 20260.1%0.1%0.7%0.9%-1.8p—
May 15, 20260.7%-0.3%-0.5%-0.3%-2.1p—
Apr 16, 2026-0.5%-0.1%0.2%0.7%-4.1p—
Mar 16, 20260.2%0.4%0.7%—+21p—
Feb 18, 20260.7%0.1%0.4%0.2%-3.2p—
Jan 16, 20260.4%0.2%0.1%0.4%+9.2p—
Dec 23, 20250.1%0%0.1%-0.3%+2.9p—
Dec 3, 20250.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.3%-3.6p—
Sep 16, 20250.1%0%-0.1%-0.4%+28p—
Aug 15, 2025-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.4%+21p—
Jul 16, 20250.3%0.1%-0.2%0%-23p—
Jun 17, 2025-0.2%-0.2%0%0.1%-6.7p—
May 15, 20250%0%-0.3%—-18p—
Apr 16, 2025-0.3%0.1%0.7%0.8%+4.0p—
Mar 18, 20250.7%0.1%0.5%0.3%-5.6p—
Feb 14, 20250.5%0.1%0.9%1%-1.9p—
Jan 17, 20250.9%0.2%-0.1%0.2%+50p—
Dec 17, 2024-0.1%-0.7%-0.3%-0.4%-1.1p—
Nov 15, 2024-0.3%-0.2%-0.3%-0.5%-14p—
Oct 17, 2024-0.3%0%0.8%0.3%+6.2p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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