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United States

ISM Manufacturing Employment USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Dec 1 15:00 UTC · consensus 53.9 · previous 52.4  

What this release is

The ISM Manufacturing Employment index measures the level of employment within the United States manufacturing sector. This monthly business survey is published by the Institute for Supply Management, with official information available on ismworld.org.

Forex traders monitor this release as a gauge of economic activity and labor market health. Strong employment growth in manufacturing can signal broader economic expansion, potentially influencing expectations for central bank monetary policy. Such policy expectations can, in turn, affect the valuation of the US Dollar.

The market typically focuses on the headline employment figure from this report. While it is a component of a larger manufacturing survey, its employment aspect is often analyzed for insights into the labor market. After past releases, market participants have reacted to the data as an indicator of business sentiment regarding hiring.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
12pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
67pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD6.7p8.8p12p20p
AUDUSD5.0p6.3p11p20p
GBPUSD7.3p9.7p16p28p
NZDUSD4.6p6.7p8.3p16p
USDCAD5.5p7.4p11p21p
USDCHF6.0p7.6p11p21p
USDJPY10p12p14p27p
XAUUSD20p24p38p60p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 22 of 42 cases · median -1.1p n=42 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 27 of 49 cases · median +5.5p n=49 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 11 of 17 cases · median -5.2p n=17 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Nov 2, 202652.451.452.7—-17p—
Oct 1, 202652.75251.2—-30p—
Sep 1, 202651.255.352.8—-5.2p—
Aug 3, 202652.848.649.7—-13p—
Jul 1, 202649.7—48.6—0.0p—
Jun 1, 202648.646.746.4—+7.6p—
May 1, 202646.447.848.7—+5.5p—
Apr 1, 202648.747.548.848.8+11p—
Mar 2, 202648.845.448.1—-37p—
Feb 2, 202648.145.544.944.8-29p—
Jan 5, 202644.9—4444+19p—
Dec 1, 20254445.64646-3.2p—
Nov 3, 20254645.745.345.3+15p—
Oct 1, 202545.3—43.843.8-7.4p—
Sep 2, 202543.845.343.443.4+13p—
Aug 1, 202543.445.945—-4.7p—
Jul 1, 20254546.146.8—-22p—
Jun 2, 202546.846.446.5—+16p—
May 1, 202546.546.444.7—-39p—
Apr 1, 202544.746.547.6—+20p—
Mar 3, 202547.646.550.3—+2.2p—
Feb 3, 202550.346.545.345.4+66p—
Jan 3, 202545.346.748.1—-11p—
Dec 2, 202448.15144.4—-4.7p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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