ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment - ForexCracked
United States

ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Nov 4 15:00 UTC · consensus 48.3 · previous 50.1  

What this release is

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment report measures the level of employment within the United States’ non-manufacturing, or services, sector. This monthly business survey is published by the Institute for Supply Management, with official data available from ismworld.org.

Forex traders monitor this employment data as a gauge of economic health. Strong or weak employment trends in the service sector can indicate broader economic expansion or contraction. Central banks typically consider such labor market conditions when evaluating potential adjustments to monetary policy, which can in turn influence the valuation of the US Dollar.

After its release, market attention often focuses on the headline employment figure. Revisions to previous months’ data are also observed. This report is part of a broader suite of ISM indicators. Historically, this series has typically had a medium impact on currency markets.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
14pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
21pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
93pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD6.2p8.4p14p21p
AUDUSD4.7p5.7p11p17p
GBPUSD6.5p11p18p28p
NZDUSD4.9p6.4p11p17p
USDCAD5.3p8.4p13p26p
USDCHF5.9p7.5p11p19p
USDJPY9.1p11p14p32p
XAUUSD20p25p34p73p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 23 of 37 cases · median -4.5p n=37 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 23 of 40 cases · median +2.6p n=40 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 20 of 29 cases · median -4.0p n=29 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 5, 202650.148.347.8—+17p—
Sep 3, 202647.848.447.4—-9.0p—
Aug 5, 202647.451.951.2—+9.4p—
Jul 6, 202651.2—47.9—+3.9p—
Jun 3, 202647.949.248—+9.0p—
May 5, 2026485045.2—+8.3p—
Apr 3, 202645.252.151.851.8-14p—
Mar 4, 202651.850.750.3—+16p—
Feb 4, 202650.350.25251.7-19p—
Jan 7, 202652—48.948.9-6.2p—
Dec 3, 202548.947.248.2—-2.8p—
Nov 5, 202548.2—47.247.2-7.7p—
Oct 5, 202547.2—46.546.5——
Sep 4, 202546.547.146.446.4-15p—
Aug 5, 202546.447.847.2—+28p—
Jul 3, 202547.248.350.7—-20p—
Jun 4, 202550.748.649—+34p—
May 5, 20254947.746.2—-15p—
Apr 3, 202546.251.253.9—+37p—
Mar 5, 202553.951.152.3—-4.2p—
Feb 5, 202552.351.351.451.3-1.1p—
Jan 7, 202551.451.251.5—-20p—
Dec 4, 202451.550.353—+35p—
Nov 5, 20245348.448.1—-4.1p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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