Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations - ForexCracked
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United States

Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 11 14:00 UTC · consensus 3.2% · previous 3.3%  

What this release is

The Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations series measures consumer sentiment regarding the expected rate of inflation over the next five years. This monthly release, focusing on the prices sector, is published by the University of Michigan, with official data available from sca.isr.umich.edu.

Forex traders monitor this data because long-term inflation expectations can influence the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve. Central banks consider these expectations when assessing future price stability and setting interest rates, which in turn can affect the valuation of the US Dollar.

After past releases, market attention often focuses on the initial headline figure. Revisions to previously reported data can also draw market interest. This series is released monthly and typically has a medium impact on market activity.

How hard it hits, measured

244 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
12pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
57pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.9p6.5p12p20p
AUDUSD3.0p5.4p8.3p16p
GBPUSD5.0p7.5p16p29p
NZDUSD2.7p4.6p7.3p12p
USDCAD4.5p7.0p13p24p
USDCHF3.1p5.0p8.7p17p
USDJPY4.4p7.1p12p22p
XAUUSD13p21p30p67p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 36 of 67 cases · median -1.5p n=67 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 43 of 73 cases · median +3.1p n=73 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 35 of 69 cases · median +1.0p n=69 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 28, 20263.3%3.3%3.3%—-26p—
Aug 14, 20263.3%3.4%3.3%—+0.6p—
Jul 31, 20263.3%3.3%3.3%—+37p—
Jul 17, 20263.3%3.4%3.3%—+4.2p—
Jun 26, 20263.3%3.4%3.4%—-31p—
Jun 12, 20263.4%4.1%3.9%—+4.0p—
May 22, 20263.9%3.4%3.4%—-5.8p—
May 8, 20263.4%3.6%3.5%—-4.5p—
Apr 24, 20263.5%3.4%3.4%—-0.2p—
Apr 10, 20263.4%3.2%3.2%—+0.2p—
Mar 27, 20263.2%3.2%3.2%—+4.8p—
Mar 13, 20263.2%3.4%3.3%—-22p—
Feb 20, 20263.3%3.4%3.4%—+20p—
Feb 6, 20263.4%3.3%3.3%—-1.5p—
Jan 23, 20263.3%3.4%3.4%—+12p—
Jan 9, 20263.4%3%3.2%—+4.3p—
Dec 19, 20253.2%3.2%3.2%—-17p—
Dec 5, 20253.2%3.5%3.4%—-1.7p—
Nov 21, 20253.4%3.6%3.6%—-11p—
Nov 7, 20253.6%3.8%3.9%—-1.1p—
Oct 24, 20253.9%3.7%3.7%—-0.5p—
Oct 10, 20253.7%4%3.7%—+9.9p—
Sep 26, 20253.7%3.9%3.9%—+7.6p—
Sep 12, 20253.9%3.6%3.5%—+13p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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