Michigan Consumer Sentiment - ForexCracked
United States

Michigan Consumer Sentiment USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 23 14:00 UTC · consensus 46.3 · previous 46.3  

What this release is

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index measures consumer attitudes and expectations regarding the economy and their personal finances. This monthly report is published by the University of Michigan, with its official data found at sca.isr.umich.edu. It provides insights into the consumer sector.

Forex traders monitor this release because consumer sentiment can influence future spending patterns. Stronger consumer confidence may suggest increased consumer spending, which is a significant component of economic activity. Changes in economic activity can, in turn, affect the outlook for monetary policy decisions by the central bank, which often impacts the US Dollar.

The market typically focuses on the headline sentiment figure upon release. While there are often preliminary and revised readings, the initial data point tends to garner immediate attention. After past releases, market reactions have sometimes been observed to reflect the degree to which the reported sentiment deviates from expectations, influencing short-term market movements.

How hard it hits, measured

247 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
57pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.8p6.5p11p20p
AUDUSD3.0p5.4p8.2p16p
GBPUSD4.9p7.4p16p29p
NZDUSD2.8p4.6p7.3p12p
USDCAD4.5p6.9p13p24p
USDCHF3.0p4.9p8.6p17p
USDJPY4.4p7.2p12p22p
XAUUSD13p21p30p67p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 29 of 58 cases · median +0.5p n=58 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 29 of 56 cases · median -0.4p n=56 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 58 of 106 cases · median +1.9p n=106 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 9, 202646.344.748.1—+3.0p—
Sep 25, 202648.147.847.8—+1.1p—
Sep 11, 202647.849.851.7—+0.9p—
Aug 28, 202651.75151—-26p—
Aug 14, 20265156.455.2—+0.6p—
Jul 31, 202655.254.454.4—+37p—
Jul 17, 202654.451.149.5—+4.2p—
Jun 26, 202649.548.948.9—-31p—
Jun 12, 202648.947.644.8—+4.0p—
May 22, 202644.848.248.2—-5.8p—
May 8, 202648.248.649.8—-4.5p—
Apr 24, 202649.847.647.6—-0.2p—
Apr 10, 202647.651.353.3—+0.2p—
Mar 27, 202653.355.555.5—+4.8p—
Mar 13, 202655.556.856.6—-22p—
Feb 20, 202656.657.357.3—+20p—
Feb 6, 202657.355.156.4—-1.5p—
Jan 23, 202656.45454—+12p—
Jan 9, 20265454.352.9—+4.3p—
Dec 19, 202552.953.353.3—-17p—
Dec 5, 202553.350.551—-1.7p—
Nov 21, 20255150.350.3—-11p—
Nov 7, 202550.355.353.6—-1.1p—
Oct 24, 202553.65555—-0.5p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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