Michigan Consumer Sentiment - ForexCracked
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United States

Michigan Consumer Sentiment USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 11 14:00 UTC · consensus 49.8 · previous 51.7  

What this release is

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index measures consumer attitudes and expectations regarding the economy and their personal finances. This monthly report is published by the University of Michigan, with its official data found at sca.isr.umich.edu. It provides insights into the consumer sector.

Forex traders monitor this release because consumer sentiment can influence future spending patterns. Stronger consumer confidence may suggest increased consumer spending, which is a significant component of economic activity. Changes in economic activity can, in turn, affect the outlook for monetary policy decisions by the central bank, which often impacts the US Dollar.

The market typically focuses on the headline sentiment figure upon release. While there are often preliminary and revised readings, the initial data point tends to garner immediate attention. After past releases, market reactions have sometimes been observed to reflect the degree to which the reported sentiment deviates from expectations, influencing short-term market movements.

How hard it hits, measured

244 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
12pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
57pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.9p6.5p12p20p
AUDUSD3.0p5.4p8.3p16p
GBPUSD5.0p7.5p16p29p
NZDUSD2.7p4.6p7.3p12p
USDCAD4.5p7.0p13p24p
USDCHF3.1p5.0p8.7p17p
USDJPY4.4p7.1p12p22p
XAUUSD13p21p30p67p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 29 of 56 cases · median -0.3p n=56 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 29 of 55 cases · median -0.5p n=55 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 58 of 106 cases · median +1.9p n=106 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 28, 202651.75151-26p
Aug 14, 20265156.455.2+0.6p
Jul 31, 202655.254.454.4+37p
Jul 17, 202654.451.149.5+4.2p
Jun 26, 202649.548.948.9-31p
Jun 12, 202648.947.644.8+4.0p
May 22, 202644.848.248.2-5.8p
May 8, 202648.248.649.8-4.5p
Apr 24, 202649.847.647.6-0.2p
Apr 10, 202647.651.353.3+0.2p
Mar 27, 202653.355.555.5+4.8p
Mar 13, 202655.556.856.6-22p
Feb 20, 202656.657.357.3+20p
Feb 6, 202657.355.156.4-1.5p
Jan 23, 202656.45454+12p
Jan 9, 20265454.352.9+4.3p
Dec 19, 202552.953.353.3-17p
Dec 5, 202553.350.551-1.7p
Nov 21, 20255150.350.3-11p
Nov 7, 202550.355.353.6-1.1p
Oct 24, 202553.65555-0.5p
Oct 10, 20255555.255.1+9.9p
Sep 26, 202555.155.455.4+7.6p
Sep 12, 202555.45958.2+13p

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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