Michigan Inflation Expectations - ForexCracked
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United States

Michigan Inflation Expectations USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 23 14:00 UTC · consensus 4.7% · previous 4.7%  

What this release is

The Michigan Inflation Expectations report, published monthly by the University of Michigan, measures consumer expectations for future price changes. This survey provides insights into the prices sector of the economy, reflecting how households anticipate inflation will evolve.

Forex traders monitor these inflation expectations because they can influence the monetary policy decisions of the central bank. Central banks often consider consumer inflation outlooks when setting interest rates, which in turn can impact the valuation of the US Dollar.

After past releases, the initial headline figures for Michigan Inflation Expectations typically draw a medium level of market attention. Traders generally focus on the reported expectations as a gauge of potential future inflationary pressures, influencing market sentiment without specific numerical predictions.

How hard it hits, measured

247 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
57pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.8p6.5p11p20p
AUDUSD3.0p5.4p8.2p16p
GBPUSD4.9p7.4p16p29p
NZDUSD2.8p4.6p7.3p12p
USDCAD4.5p6.9p13p24p
USDCHF3.0p4.9p8.6p17p
USDJPY4.4p7.2p12p22p
XAUUSD13p21p30p67p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 40 of 75 cases · median -1.7p n=75 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 42 of 79 cases · median +1.1p n=79 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 35 of 58 cases · median +5.1p n=58 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 9, 20264.7%4.3%4.6%—+3.0p—
Sep 25, 20264.6%4.6%4.6%—+1.1p—
Sep 11, 20264.6%4.1%4%—+0.9p—
Aug 28, 20264%4.3%4.3%—-26p—
Aug 14, 20264.3%3.7%4.2%—+0.6p—
Jul 31, 20264.2%4.2%4.2%—+37p—
Jul 17, 20264.2%4.7%4.6%—+4.2p—
Jun 26, 20264.6%4.6%4.6%—-31p—
Jun 12, 20264.6%5%4.8%—+4.0p—
May 22, 20264.8%4.5%4.5%—-5.8p—
May 8, 20264.5%4.9%4.7%—-4.5p—
Apr 24, 20264.7%4.8%4.8%—-0.2p—
Apr 10, 20264.8%3.5%3.8%—+0.2p—
Mar 27, 20263.8%3.4%3.4%—+4.8p—
Mar 13, 20263.4%3.9%3.4%—-22p—
Feb 20, 20263.4%3.5%3.5%—+20p—
Feb 6, 20263.5%4.4%4%—-1.5p—
Jan 23, 20264%4.2%4.2%—+12p—
Jan 9, 20264.2%4.3%4.2%—+4.3p—
Dec 19, 20254.2%4.1%4.1%—-17p—
Dec 5, 20254.1%3.9%4.5%—-1.7p—
Nov 21, 20254.5%4.7%4.7%—-11p—
Nov 7, 20254.7%5.3%4.6%—-1.1p—
Oct 24, 20254.6%4.6%4.6%—-0.5p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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