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United States

NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Nov 16 13:30 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index assesses the health and activity of the manufacturing sector within New York State. This monthly report, focusing on the business sector, is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, available on newyorkfed.org.

Forex traders monitor this index as an indicator of regional economic strength, which contributes to the broader assessment of the United States economy. Stronger manufacturing activity can influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, thereby impacting the valuation of the US Dollar.

After past releases, market participants have typically focused on the headline figure of the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Its monthly cadence provides regular updates on the business sector. The market’s reaction often reflects how the reading compares to prior expectations, with deviations potentially leading to shifts in USD pricing.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
10pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
68pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.0p5.7p9.7p20p
AUDUSD3.0p3.9p5.7p9.5p
GBPUSD5.1p7.6p12p20p
NZDUSD3.4p3.8p5.7p12p
USDCAD4.3p7.4p8.0p19p
USDCHF4.2p4.9p8.6p15p
USDJPY6.8p8.3p10p19p
XAUUSD15p22p33p62p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 38 of 71 cases · median +1.1p n=71 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 19 of 35 cases · median +1.8p n=35 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 15, 20267.613.520.6—+2.1p—
Aug 17, 202620.68.415.6—+5.0p—
Jul 15, 202615.615.7—+11p—
Jun 15, 20265.71619.6—+6.9p—
May 15, 202619.6-3.411—-0.4p—
Apr 15, 202611-1.4-0.2—+12p—
Mar 16, 2026-0.2-1.47.1—+0.8p—
Feb 17, 20267.1-1.47.7—-5.8p—
Jan 15, 20267.7-1.7-3.9-3.7-13p—
Dec 15, 2025-3.9—18.718.7-4.1p—
Nov 17, 202518.79.910.7—-2.0p—
Oct 15, 202510.7-13.1-8.7—-5.5p—
Sep 15, 2025-8.726.111.9—-2.3p—
Aug 15, 202511.9-14.95.5—+6.6p—
Jul 15, 20255.52.2-16—+1.7p—
Jun 16, 2025-16-6-9.2—+24p—
May 15, 2025-9.2-21.4-8.1—+11p—
Apr 15, 2025-8.115.4-20—-24p—
Mar 17, 2025-20-16.75.7—+1.8p—
Feb 18, 20255.70.7-12.6—+3.0p—
Jan 15, 2025-12.6-5.90.22.1+38p—
Dec 16, 20240.28.631.2—-11p—
Nov 15, 202431.2-4.5-11.9—-39p—
Oct 15, 2024-11.91.311.5—+5.0p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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