Philadelphia Fed Employment - ForexCracked
United States

Philadelphia Fed Employment USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 19 13:30 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The Philadelphia Fed Employment series tracks changes in employment within the manufacturing sector of the Third Federal Reserve District. This monthly report is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, with official information available at philadelphiafed.org. It offers insights into regional business activity.

Forex traders monitor this release for its implications on the US dollar. Employment trends are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s assessment of economic health and inflation pressures. Stronger employment growth can suggest a robust economy, potentially influencing expectations for monetary policy and interest rates, which in turn can affect USD valuation.

Market participants typically focus on the headline employment figures. Revisions to prior months’ data can also draw attention. After past releases, the market’s reaction has often reflected the overall sentiment regarding the labor market’s strength or weakness, with a typical impact rating of Medium on the US dollar.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
9pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
19pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
90pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.6p7.5p8.8p19p
AUDUSD3.3p4.5p7.2p11p
GBPUSD5.8p10p12p22p
NZDUSD3.6p4.9p7.0p11p
USDCAD4.2p5.2p10p17p
USDCHF4.7p6.6p7.2p14p
USDJPY6.9p8.8p11p24p
XAUUSD20p22p29p62p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 34 of 59 cases · median -2.5p n=59 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 25 of 46 cases · median +2.4p n=46 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=4 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 17, 202611.81427.9—-7.5p—
Aug 20, 202627.91.210—+1.0p—
Jul 16, 202610-7.57.9—-6.3p—
Jun 18, 20267.9-8.3-2.8—+0.7p—
May 21, 2026-2.8-7.5-5.1—-5.0p—
Apr 16, 2026-5.111.50.8—-0.2p—
Mar 19, 20260.815.7-1.3—+16p—
Feb 19, 2026-1.359.7—-11p—
Jan 15, 20269.7—12.913-13p—
Dec 18, 202512.9-0.36—+10p—
Nov 20, 202566.14.6—+30p—
Oct 16, 20254.68.35.6—+4.2p—
Sep 18, 20255.67.65.9—-34p—
Aug 21, 20255.90.810.3—+5.8p—
Jul 17, 202510.3-4.1-9.8—+12p—
Jun 20, 2025-9.810.516.5—+2.6p—
May 15, 202516.57.70.2—+11p—
Apr 17, 20250.29.719.7—+23p—
Mar 20, 202519.7165.3—-19p—
Feb 20, 20255.35.911.9—+4.1p—
Jan 16, 202511.915.76.64.8+8.6p—
Dec 19, 20246.6-3.28.6—-7.1p—
Nov 21, 20248.617.9-2.2—+6.9p—
Oct 17, 2024-2.2-1.710.7—-51p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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