S&P Global Composite PMI - ForexCracked
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United States

S&P Global Composite PMI USD

Medium impact Updated after every release

What this release is

The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, is a monthly survey-based indicator of business conditions in the United States. Published by S&P Global, it combines data from both the manufacturing and services sectors to provide a broad view of economic activity. Its official source website is markiteconomics.com.

Forex traders monitor the Composite PMI for insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy. Stronger business activity, as indicated by higher PMI readings, can suggest potential for economic growth and may influence expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy, which in turn can affect the U.S. Dollar.

After past releases, market attention often focuses on the headline figure. Significant deviations from expectations can prompt market movements. Revisions to previously reported data can also draw attention, though typically less than the initial release. The market generally digests this monthly business sector report as a timely gauge of economic momentum.

How hard it hits, measured

212 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
21pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
67pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.9p4.6p11p21p
AUDUSD2.5p3.2p9.3p17p
GBPUSD3.6p5.1p15p28p
NZDUSD2.3p3.4p9.2p17p
USDCAD3.5p5.3p12p25p
USDCHF3.1p3.8p11p18p
USDJPY3.2p5.4p15p24p
XAUUSD14p16p32p68p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 21 of 36 cases · median -1.5p n=36 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 20 of 36 cases · median -2.7p n=36 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 64 of 118 cases · median -1.7p n=118 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 3, 20265654.153.6—-7.4p—
Aug 5, 202653.65352.2—+3.6p—
Jul 6, 202652.253.151.7—-4.8p—
Jun 3, 202651.753.352—-6.6p—
May 5, 20265253.151.4—+4.8p—
Apr 3, 202651.454.752.3—-4.9p—
Mar 4, 202652.3—52.7—+7.8p—
Jan 6, 202652.7—54.2—-17p—
Dec 3, 202554.255.454.8—-4.3p—
Nov 5, 202554.854.853.6—-7.6p—
Oct 3, 202553.65555.4—-4.9p—
Sep 4, 202555.453.454.6—-15p—
Aug 5, 202554.65252.8—+8.8p—
Jul 3, 202552.851.452.1—-13p—
Jun 4, 202552.151.451.2—+30p—
May 5, 202551.252.253.5—-13p—
Apr 3, 202553.55351.6—+29p—
Mar 5, 202551.654.252.7—-6.2p—
Feb 5, 202552.754.755.4—+0.6p—
Jan 6, 202555.454.554.9—+6.6p—
Dec 4, 202454.954.854.1—+36p—
Nov 5, 202454.155.254—-1.9p—
Oct 3, 20245453.954.6—-24p—
Sep 5, 202454.653.454.3—-27p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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