S&P Global Services PMI - ForexCracked
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United States

S&P Global Services PMI USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Oct 5 13:45 UTC · consensus 58 · previous 56.5  

What this release is

The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, is a monthly economic indicator for the United States. Published by S&P Global, as indicated by its official source markiteconomics.com, it measures the health of the business services sector. This index is derived from a survey of purchasing managers regarding new orders, employment, inventories, and prices.

Forex traders monitor the Services PMI for insights into the overall economic performance of the United States. A strong services sector can indicate robust economic growth, which may influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Changes in policy expectations can affect the valuation of the US Dollar against other currencies.

The market typically focuses on the headline Services PMI figure upon its release. Significant deviations from consensus expectations can lead to immediate market reactions. While initial readings are important, subsequent revisions to the data can also prompt further adjustments in market sentiment. This release occurs monthly, providing regular updates on the services sector.

How hard it hits, measured

211 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
21pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
67pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.9p4.6p11p21p
AUDUSD2.5p3.2p9.3p17p
GBPUSD3.6p5.1p15p28p
NZDUSD2.3p3.4p9.2p17p
USDCAD3.5p5.3p12p25p
USDCHF3.1p3.8p11p18p
USDJPY3.2p5.4p15p25p
XAUUSD14p16p33p68p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 22 of 40 cases · median +1.0p n=40 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 23 of 45 cases · median -3.8p n=45 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 65 of 106 cases · median -3.0p n=106 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 3, 202656.555.454.6—-7.4p—
Aug 5, 202654.652.751.2—+3.6p—
Jul 6, 202651.250.950.7—-4.8p—
Jun 3, 202650.753.751—-6.6p—
May 5, 20265150.649.8—+4.8p—
Apr 3, 202649.852.751.7—-4.9p—
Mar 4, 202651.7—52.5—+7.8p—
Jan 6, 202652.55454.1—-17p—
Dec 3, 202554.155.354.8—-4.3p—
Nov 5, 202554.856.354.2—-7.6p—
Oct 3, 202554.256.454.5—-4.9p—
Sep 4, 202554.555.155.7—-15p—
Aug 5, 202555.753.152.9—+8.8p—
Jul 3, 202552.95253.7—-13p—
Jun 4, 202553.751.450.8—+30p—
May 5, 202550.852.154.4—-13p—
Apr 3, 202554.452.151—+29p—
Mar 5, 20255154.152.9—-6.2p—
Feb 5, 202552.955.656.8—+0.6p—
Jan 6, 202556.855.156.1—+6.6p—
Dec 4, 202456.154.955—+36p—
Nov 5, 20245555.755.2—-1.9p—
Oct 3, 202455.254.255.7—-24p—
Sep 5, 202455.751.855—-27p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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