Euro area

Germany Unemployment Change EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Nov 27 08:55 UTC · consensus 4K · previous 4K  

What this release is

The Germany Unemployment Change report measures the monthly adjustment in the number of unemployed persons across Germany. This release provides a direct insight into the health and dynamics of the German labour market. It is officially published by arbeitsagentur.de, the Federal Employment Agency.

Forex traders closely monitor this report for its implications for the Eurozone economy and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook. Significant changes in unemployment can signal shifts in consumer confidence and spending, which are crucial drivers of inflation. A robust labour market typically supports economic growth and may influence central bank decisions regarding interest rates, impacting the Euro.

Upon its monthly release, market participants typically focus on the headline figure for the change in unemployment. Traders also pay attention to any revisions made to prior months’ data, as these can provide additional context on underlying trends. The report’s impact on the Euro often reflects its deviation from market expectations, with larger surprises potentially leading to more pronounced market reactions.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
6pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
13pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
33pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD1.9p3.7p5.6p13p
EURAUD3.7p5.4p11p19p
EURCAD2.4p4.2p6.6p12p
EURCHF1.4p2.9p5.0p8.3p
EURGBP1.5p2.9p6.9p13p
EURJPY2.9p5.6p10p20p
EURNZD4.2p6.6p13p21p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 31 of 50 cases · median -2.3p n=50 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 22 of 40 cases · median -0.9p n=40 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=5 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 30, 20264K2K12K—+2.4p—
Sep 30, 202612K0K4K5K+8.4p—
Aug 28, 20264K1K6K—-2.1p—
Jul 31, 20266K-5K-1K—-2.5p—
Jun 30, 2026-1K-7K-12K—-9.0p—
May 29, 2026-12K16K20K19K-13p—
Apr 30, 202620K7K0K3K+3.5p—
Mar 31, 20260K8K1K—+3.2p—
Feb 27, 20261K2K0K1K-9.9p—
Jan 30, 20260K-3K3K—-33p—
Jan 7, 20263K-1K1K—+0.6p—
Nov 28, 20251K2K-1K-2K+4.4p—
Oct 30, 2025-1K2K14K13K+0.3p—
Sep 30, 202514K0K-9K-7K+13p—
Aug 29, 2025-9K12K2K—+1.8p—
Jul 31, 20252K11K11K10K-0.5p—
Jul 1, 202511K18K34K33K+33p—
May 28, 202534K12K4K6K-1.2p—
Apr 30, 20254K14K26K25K-14p—
Mar 28, 202526K2K5K9K-6.6p—
Feb 28, 20255K2K11K—-2.6p—
Jan 31, 202511K6K10K—-3.4p—
Jan 3, 202510K12K7K6K+6.2p—
Nov 29, 20247K16K27K26K-13p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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