Trade Balance n.s.a. - ForexCracked
Euro area

Trade Balance n.s.a. EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Nov 13 10:00 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The Euro area Trade Balance, non-seasonally adjusted, measures the difference between the total value of goods exported from and imported into the Eurozone. This monthly report is published by the European Union’s statistical office, Eurostat, on its official website, ec.europa.eu, providing raw data on the trade sector.

Forex traders monitor the Trade Balance for insights into the Euro’s supply and demand dynamics. A persistent trade surplus, where exports exceed imports, typically indicates a net inflow of foreign currency, which can support the Euro. Conversely, a trade deficit, with imports surpassing exports, suggests a net outflow of currency, potentially weighing on the Euro’s value. It also reflects the economic health and competitiveness of the Euro area.

Upon its monthly release, the market generally focuses on the headline trade balance figure. Revisions to previous months’ data can also influence market sentiment. While not always a primary market mover, this release has a typical impact rating of Medium, meaning it can prompt notable market reactions, particularly when the figures deviate significantly from expectations.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
6pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
30pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.2p3.7p6.3p10p
EURAUD2.7p5.0p10p18p
EURCAD2.4p4.5p8.3p16p
EURCHF1.4p2.5p4.8p8.8p
EURGBP1.8p2.8p4.3p10p
EURJPY3.4p5.3p7.9p14p
EURNZD3.2p5.5p13p21p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 31 of 56 cases · median +0.7p n=56 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 30 of 53 cases · median -1.7p n=53 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 15, 202614.2B2.5B8.6B7.2B+3.1p—
Aug 14, 20268.6B3.9B-7.8B-9B-1.1p—
Jul 16, 2026-7.8B6.3B-1B-1.2B0.0p—
Jun 15, 2026-1B12B7.8B4.9B+5.2p—
May 19, 20267.8B12.8B11.5B11.1B-3.8p—
Apr 17, 202611.5B—-1.9B-1B-0.5p—
Mar 20, 2026-1.9B13.5B12.6B11.2B+11p—
Feb 13, 202612.6B21.9B9.9B9.3B-3.2p—
Jan 15, 20269.9B23.8B18.4B17.9B0.0p—
Dec 16, 202518.4B8.4B19.4B18.4B+1.5p—
Nov 14, 202519.4B0.3B1B1.9B-8.2p—
Oct 16, 20251B-5.7B12.4B12.7B-0.6p—
Sep 15, 202512.4B2.4B7B8B+9.4p—
Aug 18, 20257B32.2B16.2B16.5B-1.7p—
Jul 16, 202516.2B20.1B9.9B11.1B-9.9p—
Jun 13, 20259.9B23.3B36.9B37.3B-4.9p—
May 16, 202536.9B11.9B24B24.8B-4.3p—
Apr 23, 202524B9.7B1B0.8B+5.1p—
Mar 18, 20251B4.7B15.5B15.4B-16p—
Feb 17, 202515.5B5.4B16.4B16B+15p—
Jan 16, 202516.4B11.6B6.8B8.6B-0.5p—
Dec 17, 20246.8B18.1B12.5B11.6B+2.8p—
Nov 18, 202412.5B10.7B4.6B4.1B-18p—
Oct 17, 20244.6B16.6B21.2B19.7B+7.0p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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