Core Durable Goods Orders m/m - ForexCracked
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Core Durable Goods Orders m/m USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Oct 27 12:30 UTC · consensus 1% · previous 0.3%  

What this release is

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD) measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for goods designed to last three years or more, specifically excluding transportation items. This monthly report, focusing on the business sector, is officially published by census.gov.

Forex traders monitor this release for insights into business investment and manufacturing health. Stronger core durable goods orders can signal increased economic activity, potentially influencing expectations for future interest rate policy. Conversely, weaker orders may suggest a slowdown, which could lead to different policy expectations.

The market typically focuses on the headline month over month percentage change. Revisions to prior months’ data are also closely watched, as they can alter the perceived trend. The release’s impact is generally considered medium, and its timing can influence short term market movements.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
10pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
17pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.8p5.0p10p17p
AUDUSD2.5p3.7p6.5p14p
GBPUSD4.6p6.5p13p23p
NZDUSD2.5p3.6p7.7p12p
USDCAD3.3p4.6p11p19p
USDCHF2.5p4.5p8.8p16p
USDJPY4.1p5.8p11p20p
XAUUSD12p14p23p56p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 40 of 73 cases · median -3.0p n=73 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 18 of 34 cases · median +0.8p n=34 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=6 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 25, 20260.3%0.9%0.4%0.7%-7.6p—
Aug 26, 20260.4%1%0.6%1.1%-15p—
Jul 27, 20260.6%0.4%1.3%1.8%-4.0pStory
Jun 25, 20261.3%0.5%1.1%1.4%+25p—
May 28, 20261.1%0.5%0.9%1.1%+8.5p—
Apr 29, 20260.9%0.6%0.8%1.2%-14p—
Apr 7, 20260.8%0.4%0.4%0.3%-1.2p—
Mar 13, 20260.4%0.6%0.9%1.3%+8.2p—
Feb 18, 20260.9%0.3%0.5%0.4%-20p—
Jan 26, 20260.5%0.3%0.2%0.1%+20p—
Dec 23, 20250.2%0.2%0.6%0.7%-17p—
Nov 26, 20250.6%-0.2%0.4%0.5%+1.3p—
Sep 25, 20250.4%0.6%1.1%1%-34p—
Aug 26, 20251.1%0.2%0.2%0.3%-8.0p—
Jul 25, 20250.2%0.2%0.5%0.6%+0.7p—
Jun 26, 20250.5%0.1%0.2%0%+12p—
May 27, 20250.2%0.2%0%-0.2%+6.1p—
Apr 24, 20250%0.4%0.7%—+8.9p—
Mar 26, 20250.7%0.1%0%0.1%-21p—
Feb 27, 20250%0.3%0.3%0.1%-43p—
Jan 28, 20250.3%0.3%-0.1%-0.2%+7.1p—
Dec 23, 2024-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%+5.1p—
Nov 27, 20240.1%0.2%0.4%—+24p—
Oct 25, 20240.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%+5.3p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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