S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - ForexCracked
0.04 pip average spreads, measured over a full month of live data. Unrestricted EAs and a free MT5 virtual server.Open an accountOpen
United States

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 1 13:45 UTC · consensus 52.6 · previous 53.9  

What this release is

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, is a monthly business survey that provides an early indication of the health of the manufacturing sector. It is published by S&P Global, with detailed information available on markiteconomics.com. The index measures changes in output, new orders, employment, inventories, and prices across manufacturing firms.

Forex traders closely monitor the Manufacturing PMI as a key indicator of economic activity and potential inflationary pressures. A robust manufacturing sector can signal stronger economic growth, which may influence the central bank’s monetary policy decisions regarding interest rates. Historically, significant deviations from expectations in this report have often led to notable movements in the US dollar. The typical impact rating for this release is considered high.

Market participants generally focus on the headline PMI figure upon release. Revisions to prior months’ data, if present, are also scrutinized for their implications on economic trends. Due to its monthly cadence and early release relative to other economic data, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is often seen as a timely gauge of the business sector’s momentum, influencing short-term market sentiment.

How hard it hits, measured

211 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
22pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.9p4.7p11p22p
AUDUSD2.2p3.8p9.2p17p
GBPUSD4.4p5.2p14p26p
NZDUSD2.3p3.8p7.2p15p
USDCAD3.5p5.6p12p22p
USDCHF3.0p3.9p9.4p18p
USDJPY3.8p5.5p14p24p
XAUUSD12p16p31p63p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 17 of 29 cases · median -1.8p n=29 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 14 of 26 cases · median +3.3p n=26 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 77 of 133 cases · median -2.1p n=133 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 1, 202653.955.553.9-1.3p
Aug 3, 202653.954.555.7-16p
Jul 1, 202655.754.355.1-9.9p
Jun 1, 202655.153.254.5-3.5p
May 1, 202654.55252.3+17p
Apr 1, 202652.352.151.6+1.0p
Mar 2, 202651.651.8-21p
Jan 2, 202651.852.352.2+13p
Dec 1, 202552.251.752.5-8.6p
Nov 3, 202552.552+6.7p
Oct 1, 20255252.853-6.9p
Sep 2, 20255351.649.5+23p
Aug 1, 202549.551.952.9-2.2p
Jul 1, 202552.949.852-16p
Jun 2, 20255249.350.2+25p
May 1, 202550.25149.8-28p
Apr 1, 202549.852.652.7+17p
Mar 3, 202552.751.951.2+6.9p
Feb 3, 202551.251.949.4+69p
Jan 2, 202549.450.549.7-20p
Dec 2, 202449.746.948.5-13p
Nov 1, 202448.545.447.3-23p
Oct 1, 202447.347.547.9+12p
Sep 3, 202447.950.549.6-6.7p

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
← Back to the economic calendar