ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid - ForexCracked
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ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 1 14:00 UTC · consensus 76.3 · previous 71.1  

What this release is

The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index, published monthly by ismworld.org, measures the prices manufacturers pay for raw materials and other inputs. This business sector indicator reflects cost pressures faced by companies within the manufacturing industry.

Forex traders monitor this release for signals of inflationary trends. When manufacturers report paying higher prices for inputs, it can suggest broader price increases throughout the economy. Such inflationary pressures are a key consideration for central banks in their monetary policy decisions, which can influence the valuation of the US Dollar.

This release typically garners high attention from market participants. The headline figure is often the primary focus, and after past releases, significant movements in the US Dollar have sometimes been observed. Its monthly cadence provides regular insights into the manufacturing sector’s cost environment.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
19pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
67pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD6.7p8.9p11p19p
AUDUSD5.0p6.3p11p20p
GBPUSD7.3p9.7p16p28p
NZDUSD4.6p6.8p8.3p16p
USDCAD5.6p7.6p11p21p
USDCHF6.0p7.5p11p20p
USDJPY10p12p14p27p
XAUUSD20p24p36p60p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 25 of 49 cases · median +1.6p n=49 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 23 of 44 cases · median +2.5p n=44 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 10 of 16 cases · median -5.8p n=16 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 1, 202671.163.571.1-5.2pStory
Aug 3, 202671.165.773-13p
Jul 1, 20267382.10.0p
Jun 1, 202682.187.984.6+7.6p
May 1, 202684.682.678.3+5.5p
Apr 1, 202678.373.670.570.5+11p
Mar 2, 202670.562.259-37p
Feb 2, 20265958.458.5-29p
Jan 5, 202658.558.558.5+19p
Dec 1, 202558.5565858-3.2p
Nov 3, 20255859.961.961.9+15p
Oct 1, 202561.963.763.7-7.4p
Sep 2, 202563.763.964.864.8+13p
Aug 1, 202564.865.569.7-4.7p
Jul 1, 202569.769.969.4-22p
Jun 2, 202569.471.869.8+16p
May 1, 202569.868.269.4-39p
Apr 1, 202569.459.462.4+20p
Mar 3, 202562.453.254.9+2.2p
Feb 3, 202554.950.652.5+66p
Jan 3, 202552.551.950.3-11p
Dec 2, 202450.354.254.8-4.7p
Nov 1, 202454.85148.3-15p
Oct 1, 202448.353.354+5.6p

Showing the latest 24 of 122 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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