Retail Inventories m/m - ForexCracked
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Retail Inventories m/m USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 15 14:00 UTC · consensus 0.3% · previous 0.3%  

What this release is

Retail Inventories m/m measures the monthly change in the total value of goods held by retailers. This data reflects the stock of products available for sale within the consumer sector. The U.S. Census Bureau, an agency of census.gov, publishes this report on a monthly basis.

Forex traders monitor Retail Inventories m/m as an indicator of economic activity and consumer demand. Changes in inventory levels can signal shifts in business confidence and future production plans. Significant movements in retail inventory figures can influence the overall economic outlook, which in turn may affect expectations for central bank policy and the valuation of the U.S. dollar.

The market typically assesses the headline Retail Inventories m/m figure for its immediate implications. Revisions to prior months’ data are also observed, as they can provide additional context on underlying trends. While considered a medium impact release, unexpected deviations from forecasts have historically led to notable market reactions, particularly when viewed in conjunction with other economic indicators.

How hard it hits, measured

227 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
10pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
18pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.2p4.9p10p18p
AUDUSD2.5p4.0p7.7p14p
GBPUSD4.7p7.1p13p21p
NZDUSD2.4p3.6p6.7p12p
USDCAD3.3p5.8p11p20p
USDCHF2.7p3.8p8.7p14p
USDJPY4.1p5.8p10p20p
XAUUSD12p20p33p60p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 34 of 63 cases · median +1.5p n=63 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 33 of 65 cases · median +0.3p n=65 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 17 of 34 cases · median -2.0p n=34 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 30, 20260.3%0.8%0.8%—+2.1p—
Sep 16, 20260.8%0.7%0.7%—+6.4p—
Aug 27, 20260.7%-0.1%-0.2%—+16p—
Aug 14, 2026-0.2%0%0%—+0.6p—
Jul 28, 20260%0.5%0.6%0.5%+4.7p—
Jul 16, 20260.6%0.6%0.6%—-7.4p—
Jun 26, 20260.6%0.4%0.7%—+17p—
Jun 17, 20260.7%0.7%0.7%—-7.6p—
May 29, 20260.7%0.3%0.6%0.7%+3.5p—
May 14, 20260.6%0.7%0.7%—-11p—
Apr 29, 20260.7%0.1%0.2%0.3%-14p—
Apr 21, 20260.2%0.1%0.3%—-13p—
Apr 1, 20260.3%-0.2%0.1%—+11p—
Mar 6, 20260.1%0%0%—+7.6p—
Feb 19, 20260%0.1%-0.1%-0.5%-11p—
Feb 10, 2026-0.1%0.3%0.6%—-0.7p—
Jan 14, 20260.6%0.2%0.4%—+4.1p—
Dec 16, 20250.4%—-0.1%—-30p—
Dec 16, 2025—0%-0.1%—+2.6p—
Nov 25, 2025-0.1%0%0%—+8.4p—
Sep 25, 20250%0.1%0.2%0.1%-34p—
Sep 16, 20250.2%0.2%0.2%—+28p—
Aug 29, 20250.2%0.2%0.2%—+5.3p—
Aug 15, 20250.2%0.3%0.3%—+9.0p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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